Tokyo, October 2026: Price Cuts Start in the Center and on the Bay

Bayside is 12 points above inland, and distance to the station barely matters

Tokyo Condo Market Watch (東京マンション相場ウォッチ) tracks Tokyo's resale condominium market at regular intervals using Urbalytics listing data.

As of mid-October 2026, 44.3% of resale condos on the market in Tokyo's 23 wards had cut their asking price in the previous three months, up 1.6 points from 42.7% in our last count (October 7). This article looks at where the cuts are happening: by ward, bay area versus inland, along the Yamanote Line, and by distance to the station.

The "price-cut share" is defined as before: the share of resale condos with a listing record in the last three months whose asking price fell below its previous record. It counts how many listings were cut, not how far market prices have fallen.

The more expensive the ward, the more listings cut

Chuo (52.2%), Minato (51.3%) and Shibuya (50.9%) are all above half, and the three central wards of Chiyoda, Chuo and Minato together stand at 50.8%. The lowest are Adachi (35.9%), Katsushika (36.5%) and Sumida (37.5%), a 16-point gap from top to bottom. Cuts are deeper in the center too: the median cut is 5.3% in both Chuo and Minato, against 4.2% in Adachi.

Bayside is 12 points above inland, with deeper cuts

Of the 2,503 listings whose nearest station is in the bay area (Kachidoki, Tsukishima, Toyosu, Ariake, Shinonome, Tatsumi, Tennozu Isle and others), 55.3% had cut their price. The 30,083 inland listings stood at 43.3%, a 12-point gap. The median cut was 5.8% on the bay and 4.6% inland.

By station, Kachidoki, the nearest station to Harumi Flag, has the most listings on the bay at 991, and 58.9% of them have cut. Ariake is highest, with 69.8% of 86 listings cut and a median cut of 7.1%. Toyosu is at 52.2% and Tsukishima at 50.4%. The bay area has seen a concentration of new towers, fast price gains and a high share of investment purchases in recent years, so listings are concentrated and cuts appear to have started earlier. This is an inference from the data; towers versus other buildings is the subject of the next article.

Yamanote Line: more cuts on the south side, fewer on the north

Among Yamanote Line stations with at least 50 listings, the highest shares are Shibuya (54.6%), Shinagawa (54.4%), Tamachi (54.3%), Hamamatsucho (54.0%) and Osaki (53.3%), clustered on the southern stretch from Hamamatsucho to Osaki. The lowest are Sugamo (37.9%), Mejiro (38.6%), Nishi-Nippori (39.6%) and Ueno (40.8%), all on the north side. Between the two sub-centers, Shibuya is at 54.6% and Ikebukuro at 43.8%, an 11-point gap.

Distance to the station barely affects price cuts

Grouped by walking time to the nearest station, the price-cut share hardly changes: 43.6% within 3 minutes, 43.9% at 4 to 5 minutes, 44.5% at 6 to 10 minutes and 45.2% at 11 minutes or more, a spread of 1.6 points. The median cut is 4.6% to 4.8% in every group. Being close to a station does not protect a listing from cuts; which ward and which area it is in matters far more.

What this means for buyers and sellers

Buyers: On the bay and in the three central wards, more than half of listings cut their price within three months, by about 6% at a time on the bay. If you are looking at bayside towers, there is more room to negotiate than inland.

Sellers: Around stations like Kachidoki and Ariake, where about six in ten listings have cut, base your price on recent nearby cuts rather than sale prices from a few years ago.

Log in to Urbalytics to see more condo price history and transaction records

Methodology

Resale condominiums in Tokyo's 23 wards: 32,586 units with a listing record in the 90 days to around October 14, 2026. Price cut = any asking price in those 90 days below the previous record. Cut size = the median of each listing's largest cut within the 90 days. Bayside = listings whose nearest station is Kachidoki, Tsukishima, Toyosu, Shin-Toyosu, Shijo-mae, Ariake, Ariake-tennis-no-mori, Kokusai-tenjijo, Shinonome, Tatsumi, Tokyo Teleport, Odaiba-kaihinkoen, Daiba, Shibaura-futo or Tennozu Isle. Stations are each building's registered nearest station. All figures are asking prices, not transaction prices. Data: Urbalytics asking-price data, compiled October 2026.

Tags: Tokyo condo market, Tokyo bayside condos, Kachidoki, Harumi Flag, Toyosu condos, Ariake, price cuts, Tokyo 23 wards, Yamanote Line, Minato condos, Chuo condos, buying property in Japan, Urbalytics

Cover image: AI-generated illustration (Higgsfield)