Since Urbalytics launched, we have received a lot of user feedback: “Feature-rich, but don’t know where to start.”
This article uses a series of real investment property cases to teach you how to make investment decisions with Urbalytics.

⚠️Note: Some features (e.g., rent lookup) are paid features and are only available to paid subscribers.

#1 Property Information

Basic Information

Property listing (login required): https://www.urbalytics.jp/ex/search/cmdh6gg61003ujm049bt0hk9i

This detached house is located in Mishuku 2-chome, Meguro-ku, Tokyo. It is about a 15-minute walk to Ikejiri-Ohashi Station on the Tokyu Den-en-toshi Line, situated in a quiet residential area on the border of Setagaya and Meguro.

The land area is approximately 67.64 m² and the total floor area is approximately 87.48 m². It is a three-story wooden structure with a 2SLDK layout and includes one parking space. The building was completed in Heisei 8 (1996) and is built to the newer seismic standards, so its earthquake resistance is reliable.

The entire interior was fully redesigned and renovated by ozi design works inc., including a new system kitchen, bathroom fixtures, lighting and air conditioning, and the exterior was also refurbished. The overall style is modern and bright, with an LDK of about 14 tatami mats, two bedrooms and service space—suitable for young families or small owner-occupiers.

In addition, the property is located in a Category 1 Low-Rise Exclusive Residential Zone, which generally offers a quiet living environment with good daylighting and complete local amenities. Both Komaba-Todaimae and Ikejiri-Ohashi stations are within walking distance.

The property is a high-quality ready-to-move-in home in a good location, suitable for buyers seeking structural reliability and a strong design sense.

Urba Property Overall Analysis

Urbalytics’ estimate shows that, as a detached house, this property’s discount degree is 3.8% — in other words, its price is slightly below the market’s reasonable range compared with similar nearby detached houses.

For detached houses, Urbalytics evaluates using price per square meter of building area. Based on that unit, the system estimates:

• Average price (based on the surrounding average price per m² of building area) is about ¥98.68 million

• Conservative price (based on the 80th percentile price per m² in the area) is about ¥85.74 million

• Compared with the market benchmark average price, this property is priced approximately ¥3.17 million lower

The normal range for price per square meter (ROI) for similar detached houses nearby is approximately ¥1.937–¥5.688 million/m², with an average of about ¥3.723 million/m².

❌ Caution — Limited Upside in Mishuku

Although the property has a good location and a relatively recent construction year, there are a few points to note from an investment perspective.

First, land prices in the Mishuku area have only risen about 1.68% over the past five years, indicating a relatively stable area with limited short-term capital appreciation for investors.

Second, the property is a wooden structure. If it is used for rental business or converted into a short-term accommodation, special attention must be paid to fire resistance and compliance for alterations.

In addition, while the building coverage ratio (60%) and floor area ratio (200%) leave some room for redevelopment, the site has narrow road frontage according to the plan, which may constrain future reconstruction or expansion under planning and fire regulations.

#2 Price Reduction History

According to Urbalytics’ tracked price changes, this property has experienced clear price reductions over the past four months, with an overall trend of steady downward adjustments.

System tracking shows the initial listing price was ¥99.98 million (July 2025), and it was publicly marketed across multiple brokerage platforms thereafter. From mid-October 2025, the price was reduced multiple times and was finally adjusted to ¥94.98 million on November 10, a cumulative reduction of about ¥5.00 million (-5.0%).

It is noteworthy that several real estate companies (including Tokyo House Life, Genmu Design, Artic, Good Real, etc.) listed the property concurrently, indicating a typical co-brokered sales model (general brokerage) rather than an exclusive listing.

The pace of price reductions was fairly concentrated, especially from early to late October, suggesting the seller proactively reduced price after weak market feedback to accelerate sales.

To date there is no record of a sale or relisting (re-offer), so the property remains in its initial marketing phase with no signs of short-term speculation. Prices appear to have stabilized;

if there are no further reductions in the next one to two months, it may indicate the seller’s price tolerance is near its floor. For buyers, there is still room for negotiation at this stage—an appropriate time to enter negotiations.

#3 Nearby Prices

Urbalytics’ “Nearby Transaction History” shows this property (Mishuku 2-chome, Setagaya; listed at ¥94.98 million) is located at the core of the Ikejiri-Ohashi–Mishuku neighborhood, which is dominated by low-rise houses and small apartments and offers a mature, quiet residential environment.

System statistics show 47 similar secondhand house transactions within about a 400 m radius, with total floor areas mainly concentrated in the 70–130 m² range and price bands between ¥70 million and ¥220 million. The area’s average unit price per building area is approximately ¥1.249 million/m², while the 80th percentile (top 20%) reaches about ¥1.50 million/m², indicating a concentration of higher-priced homes in parts of the Mishuku submarket.

In terms of recent price trends, several comparable properties have seen 3–7% reductions in the past six months. For example, two properties in Mishuku 1-chome, about 383 m away (building areas ~70–100 m²), reduced prices by ¥4–7 million between late 2024 and mid-2025; one of them ultimately closed at ¥124 million, showing meaningful negotiation room in the market.

Additionally, several new-build homes in 2025 (e.g., Mishuku 4-chome, Mishuku 3-chome) were initially priced in the ¥140–¥190 million range but have also seen small downward adjustments, suggesting the market is in a stage of “high plateau → moderate correction.”

By comparison, this property’s listing at ¥94.98 million puts its unit area price slightly below the neighborhood average, positioned at the lower-middle range (around the 40th–50th percentile), which gives it some price competitiveness.

However, given the multiple brokers listing the property and the sustained pace of price cuts, the seller may currently be probing the market floor. Overall, this is a typical case of “price stabilizing but slow absorption,” suitable for owner-occupiers or long-term holders rather than short-term speculators.

4 Rental Analysis

According to Urbalytics’ “rent upside” analysis, the rent level for this Mishuku 2-chome property is generally in the mid-to-low range for the area but has some upward potential. The system shows:

• Based on the average rent inferred from nearby sale comparables, similar properties in the area have an estimated average rent of about ¥180,000/month (tsubo unit price ¥6,600)

• Based on nearby actual rental transactions (general leases), the average is about ¥280,000/month (tsubo unit price ¥10,600);

• High-end whole-building or family units (e.g., entire building or 3LDK+) can reach about ¥650,000/month (tsubo unit price ¥24,500).

The rental structure in the Mishuku–Ikejiri-Ohashi area shows a wide spread, reflecting clear segmentation by property type:

• Smaller 1LDK–2LDK units are mainly in the ¥200,000–¥300,000 range;

• While 80 m²+ 3LDK units typically rent for ¥450,000–¥500,000/month, with unit-area rents often in the ¥11,000–¥15,000 per tsubo range.

Given this property is generally rented as an entire building, a monthly rent of ¥280,000 or higher is a reasonable estimate. Under that scenario the yield is about 3.5%, which is typical for whole-building rentals in a core area.

5 Overall Investment Return Analysis

💼 Model Assumptions and Premises

Using Urbalytics’ short-term cashflow (CF) model, this analysis assumes a 5-year holding period, 60% loan-to-value, 2.8% loan interest rate, and a loan term of 1 year. No renovation or additional investment costs were counted at acquisition (reform cost = 0). Acquisition-related costs are estimated at 7% of the purchase price. Annual operating expenses are assumed to be 20% of gross rental income, and selling costs are set at 3%.

The sale price is calculated based on a building + land unit price of ¥1.12 million/m². The model assumes rental income remains stable (no growth), with initial and terminal annual income both at ¥3.36 million, representing a conservative steady-state assumption.

📈 Model Results and Cashflow Performance

The chart on the right shows annual cashflow remains stable during the holding period: annual rent income is fixed at ¥3.36 million, while expenses are about ¥5.85 million, resulting in a slight short-term cash deficit.

In year five, the sale produces approximately ¥97.67 million in cash inflow, causing a significant increase in net cashflow—the investment recovery is concentrated at exit. The pie chart shows a total target profit of about ¥13.10 million, with rental net profit of ¥5.46 million and sale profit of ¥7.64 million. Overall ROC (return on cost) is 43.1%.

The model estimates a reasonable acquisition price of approximately ¥81.67 million, which corresponds to about 85.99% of the current listing price of ¥94.98 million.

👉 Offer Recommendation

From an IRR perspective, to achieve a target internal rate of return of 15%–20% under the above assumptions, the target offer should be around ¥80 million (roughly 85% of the list price).

If you can achieve additional cashflow upside through light renovations or rent increases, returns can be further improved. However, given current market pricing is in a stable range with limited room for deep discounts, we recommend targeting the ¥85–90 million range as the core negotiation band.

Summary

This residential property in Mishuku 2-chome, Setagaya is currently listed at ¥94.98 million. Urbalytics’ assessment shows the price is slightly below the area’s reasonable range, with an estimated discount degree of about 3.8%. The property is stated as built in 2009 and is located in the core living area of Ikejiri-Ohashi and Mishuku, combining good transport access and a favorable living environment.

The exterior and interior have been redesigned and renovated, and the property includes one parking space—suitable for owner-occupancy or long-term hold investment. Based on comparable analysis, the current pricing is at the regional upper-mid level, and rent upside is limited.

According to the cashflow simulation, a reasonable acquisition price should be controlled at about ¥80 million (approximately 85% of the list price). Given the market’s low activity and limited price correction, investors should carefully assess resale liquidity and rent sustainability in the area before proceeding.

Property listing (login required) https://www.urbalytics.jp/ex/search/cmdh6gg61003ujm049bt0hk9i

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