¥500M Apartments Bought but Left Vacant — How Long Can the Hot‑Potato at Mita Garden Hills Continue?

In 2023, Mita Garden Hills, a large-scale luxury residential project in Mita, Minato ward, Tokyo developed jointly by Mitsui Fudosan, Mitsubishi Estate and others, officially launched sales. As one of the most closely watched central Tokyo residential projects in recent years, the scheme attracted attention not only for its rare 25,000 m² site area and roughly 1,000-unit planned scale, but also for its unprecedentedly high selling prices.

¥14,000,000 per tsubo; base units around ¥500 million

Mita Garden Hills is not a conventional high‑rise tower complex but a low‑density residential ensemble of five buildings under 14 stories above ground, promoting the concepts of an “urban oasis” and “understated luxury.” According to public information, the project’s average price per tsubo exceeded ¥13,000,000 at launch, with some upper‑floor units even surpassing ¥14,000,000 per tsubo. For example, a 121 m² unit transacted in the range of ¥480 million to ¥520 million, setting a new high for Minato‑ward residences.

Even so, the launch attracted a large number of high‑net‑worth buyers, wealthy domestic purchasers and investors from mainland China and Southeast Asia, and sold out quickly. The early sales momentum of Mita Garden Hills was mainly driven by its unique location, strong developer pedigree and the high quality design of the project itself.

• Prime location: The project sits in Mita, Minato ward, on a former Ministry of Communications parcel of about 25,000 m² and is one of the largest residential redevelopment sites in Minato in recent years. Located in the city center core, it benefits from excellent transport links and complete lifestyle amenities, attracting substantial high‑net‑worth interest.

• Low‑density planning + landscaping to break “tower fatigue”: Unlike traditional tower condos, this development uses a low‑rise, multi‑building layout (not super‑tall), emphasizing the “urban oasis” concept. Building density is well controlled and green space is abundant, creating a “park‑style mixed residential area” that better meets high‑net‑worth preferences for comfort and privacy.

• All units meet ZEH‑Oriented standards, emphasizing sustainability and future‑readiness: All residences are energy‑saving homes (ZEH‑Oriented), achieving near‑zero net CO2 emissions. The project also integrates solar power + medium‑pressure gas hybrid generation + waste‑heat recovery systems, rare in the Japanese market, aligning with asset preferences under the decarbonization trend.

• High‑end lifestyle amenities + Imperial Hotel collaboration: Amenities include a clubhouse, gym and public spaces, and services are linked with the Imperial Hotel to provide customized lifestyle services such as property management, room servicing and community shuttle, meeting high‑end clients’ demand for an exceptional living experience.

These factors collectively drove Mita Garden Hills’ hot initial sales, making it a benchmark in Tokyo’s luxury residential market.

Raising the overall 2023 Tokyo price average

The high prices at Mita Garden Hills significantly affected Tokyo’s overall price level. According to the Japan Real Estate Economic Institute, the average new home price in Tokyo’s 23 wards rose 39.4% year‑on‑year in 2023 to ¥114,830,000, breaking the ¥100 million mark for the first time and setting a record high. Mita Garden Hills was one of the main factors pushing up the average. Its sales success not only reflected activity in the luxury market but also statistically lifted regional price levels.

Resale at delivery — “better to sell than to buy” becomes the norm

The project was completed and began handovers in March 2024. Surprisingly, numerous resale listings appeared immediately on secondary real‑estate platforms. Data show:

• 80 m² class units listed at ¥650 million–¥730 million, equivalent to roughly ¥25,000,000–¥30,000,000 per tsubo.

• Units over 100 m² listed as high as ¥1.0 billion–¥1.3 billion, with per‑tsubo prices approaching ¥35,000,000.

Compared with sales prices two years earlier, these listings have almost doubled. This demonstrates that some buyers purchased not to occupy, but to treat units as highly liquid assets — buying and quickly reselling to realize large capital gains.

2025 — tsubo prices have exceeded ¥25,000,000, nearly doubled

Japan property big‑data platform Urbalytics shows that Mita Garden Hills East has reached ¥28,970,000 per tsubo — nearly twice the original sales level. North and South are in the ¥24,000,000–¥26,000,000 range. Monthly rents are around ¥1,300,000, giving a yield of roughly 2.4%.

Investment yields compressing; rents do not match prices

From an investment perspective, real estate returns derive from two core components:

1. Capital gain (asset appreciation)

2. Income gain (rental yield)

Using the Urbalytics big‑data platform to observe current listings and rental market conditions, rental yields look unattractive:

• 80 m² units command monthly rents of ¥900,000–¥1,100,000

• 100 m² units see monthly rents of approximately ¥1,500,000–¥2,000,000

Even calculated against distribution (launch) prices, net yields are only about 3%–3.5%. Using current secondary listing prices (after premiums) as the basis, yields rapidly compress to around 1.7%–2.0%, close to the Japanese 10‑year government bond yield (≈1.45% as of May 2025). For most professional investors, the risk‑return ratio is already unbalanced.

Market shifts to short‑term speculation; long‑term allocation logic no longer holds

Investors now face a dilemma:

• If they hold and rent, returns are worse than many financial products.

• If they sell at high prices, they require an even larger group of subsequent buyers to take the risk.

In other words, Mita Garden Hills has shifted from an “asset allocation” project to a pure capital speculation platform.

According to fundamental real estate investment logic, in the absence of long‑term stable rental income and under high tax pressure, the scope for sustained appreciation is limited. Overreliance on resale spreads is essentially akin to a financial derivative “hot‑potato” game.

Against the backdrop of increased volatility in Japan’s real estate market and rising interest rates, investors face both declining returns and tightening liquidity. High‑end residential projects like Mita Garden Hills, with substantial holding costs, further compress already limited rental returns and materially increase overall investment risk.

Major high holding costs include:

• Management fees and repair reserve: Public information shows that for a 100 m² layout, monthly management + repair fees are close to ¥200,000. Over a year this exceeds ¥2,000,000 — roughly equivalent to 1–2 months’ rent.

• Fixed asset tax and city planning tax: Levied at about 1.7% of the government‑assessed value. For high‑value property, and given recent adjustments to condominium tax rates, this is a significant unavoidable cost.

• Other miscellaneous fees: such as administrative costs and brokerage fees for leasing.

Advice for investors

For high‑price assets like Mita Garden Hills in the current Japanese market, investors should be more cautious and re‑examine their investment logic across the following dimensions:

1. Carefully evaluate holding period and tax structure: Disposals within five years in Japan face high short‑term capital gains tax (39.63%), which can significantly erode arbitrage margins. If short‑term capital gains are the goal, plan exit timing and tax structure in advance, otherwise gains may be illusory.

2. Beware market turning points and liquidity risk: The market appears overvalued. High‑end assets like Mita Garden Hills nearly doubled in just two years and now heavily rely on the next buyer’s willingness to pay a premium. Any macro adjustment (e.g., rate hikes, tighter lending) or confidence shock could trigger rapid price corrections and severe liquidity loss.

3. Assess the rental market’s absorption capacity: Although the project is positioned ultra‑luxury, Tokyo’s high‑end rental market is limited and rent growth lags price rises. Current yields have fallen below 2%; rental income cannot cover holding costs, undermining long‑term allocation logic.

How Urbalytics can support investing in Japan

In a market full of uncertainty, having and using data is indispensable. As Japan’s only professional, full‑asset‑class real‑estate data platform, Urbalytics offers investors:

• Real‑time price and rent baselines to help compare current listings with regional fair values and identify bubble risk;

• AI‑assisted site selection and valuation models to help investors select assets and hedge risks across regions and product types;

• Return, rent‑to‑price and holding cost calculation tools to quantify true asset profitability;

• Market dynamics and policy change monitoring to receive immediate signals on central bank policy, tax reforms and transaction trends.

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Closing remarks

Mita Garden Hills is a mirror reflecting the “irrational exuberance” of Tokyo’s central luxury residential market. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but when prices diverge too far from fundamentals, correction is often inevitable.
Real estate value ultimately returns to the fundamentals of occupancy and use.

For reprints or collaboration, please contact the Urbalytics editorial team.

📚 References

1. https://www.sumai-surfin.com/columns/mansion-knowledge/mita-garden-hills — Why is “Mita Garden Hills” so notable? Check prices and surrounding market.

2. https://www.mitsui-chintai.co.jp/resident/original/mitagardenhills/ — Mita Garden Hills rental data.