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Development is not a mistake, but we cannot leave behind the "forgotten people."
The redevelopment plan for Takashimadaira in Itabashi Ward, especially the construction of new tower apartments around the No. 7 Elementary School, is causing significant anxiety and resentment among nearby residents, particularly the elderly.
Japan's number one gigantic housing complex redevelopment project
Takashimadaira Danchi, built in the 1970s, is known as the "largest mammoth housing complex in the East", consisting of 64 buildings and over 10,000 units, and once housed more than 30,000 residents. However, 50 years later, the area now faces challenges of aging structures, a significant population decline (now only 60% of its peak), and a high aging rate of 42%. To address issues such as a declining birthrate, an aging population, and outdated facilities, the Itabashi Ward Government and the UR Urban Organization (Japan Urban Renaissance Agency) are collaborating on a historic redevelopment plan.
Overview of the Plan
According to the "Takashimadaira Regional Exchange Core City Development Plan" (Exchange Core Urban Renewal Plan) formulated in March 2024 in Itabashi District, multiple functional zones are designated around the redevelopment near Takashimadaira Station. Among them, "Reorganization Area 1" is located at the site of the former Takashima Seventh Elementary School and the surrounding public land (totaling approximately 1 hectare).
The district government has relaxed the building height restriction from 45 meters to 110 meters at this location, planning to construct a super high-rise residential tower approximately 110 meters tall. The tower will utilize the site of an abandoned elementary school and integrate it with the adjacent Takashimadaira 2-Chome block 33 (currently with 7 UR rental housing buildings, totaling 1,955 units) for unified reconstruction. UR revealed that the total number of residential units in the new tower and the same area is expected to be close to the original 1,995 units to accommodate almost all the current residents. This indicates that there might not be just one tower in the future - subsequent "Restructuring Area 2" (with a height limit of 45 meters) and the "Boulevard Area" will also gradually establish residential and public spaces.
整体计划图
In addition to the residential towers, the plan will also improve regional supporting facilities. Around Takashimadaira Station, a communication square will be created, and shops and community service centers will be introduced to enhance convenience and reshape the area's image. Part of the original elementary school playground will be temporarily converted into a "tentative square" for community activities and urban renewal experiments, laying the groundwork for comprehensive regeneration in the future. Meanwhile, the new plan adjusts road traffic: two district roads are proposed to be extended to connect with Takashima Street, facilitating vehicle access to the underground parking of the towers and alleviating existing road congestion. These road changes need to balance the pedestrian environment, and the district authorities stated that efforts will be made to avoid damaging green spaces, adopting a "pedestrian-first + necessary vehicular roads" approach to ensure safety and quality of life.
再开发对象区域
Development schedule
The redevelopment project officially began preliminary preparations in 2025. Itabashi District and UR signed a land exchange agreement in March 2025, providing district-owned land such as the old Seventh Elementary School to UR for tower construction, and a draft redevelopment plan was announced. According to the district government's explanation, the design for the demolition of the old school building will be completed within 2025, and the actual demolition work will begin in 2026. After the demolition is completed, UR will start constructing towers and other new buildings in the cleared redevelopment area 1. However, due to the large scale of the project, the specific start and completion dates for the towers have not yet been finalized.
- 2025 (Preparation Phase): Demolition of old facilities such as the Seventh Elementary School and the Health and Welfare Center, and commencement of municipal infrastructure renovations, such as overhead passages and squares;
- Phase 1 (in the coming years): Construct tower buildings approximately 110 meters tall (around 7 buildings with a total of 1,955 units) on the site of the old elementary school; concurrently build pedestrian corridors and public green spaces.
- Phase two: A comprehensive development around the station will be carried out, integrating residential and commercial facilities of the towers and the station to enhance transportation convenience.
- 2027–2035: Entering a long-term cycle of collective demolition and reconstruction, redevelopment gradually extending to other areas of the Takashimadaira housing complex.
- Around 2030: The tower is completed and begins to be occupied; 2031–2035, some housing complexes are demolished and rebuilt.
As of now (mid-2025), the regional plan has passed expert review and is expected to finalize urban planning changes in June 2025. The Itabashi area and UR have also introduced large real estate companies (Mitsui Fudosan has signed up to participate in October 2024) to jointly promote development. Overall, the Takashimadaira redevelopment project is currently in the stage of detailed planning and engineering preparation. Once construction begins, this 20-year "urban regeneration" will commence, marking the beginning of a long-term and grand transformation story for investors.
Resident feedback: coexistence of expectations and concerns
Large-scale urban renewal brings opportunities as well as unrest among community residents. Many residents of Takashimadaira Danchi are elderly people and working-class families who have lived there for many years. After the redevelopment plan was announced, local residents expressed a variety of concerns and demands.
#1 Rent Increases and Relocation Pressure
At present, the rents of UR public housing in the complex are relatively low, and many low-income and elderly residents are worried that the rent of the new buildings after reconstruction will be unaffordable. According to UR, a rent reduction measure with a monthly cap of 35,000 yen will be offered after reconstruction, but it cannot guarantee that the rent of the new housing will remain the same as the old housing. In other words, if the rent for the new tower increases significantly, the portion exceeding 35,000 yen will be borne by the residents themselves. UR has not clearly denied the possibility of a "substantial rent increase," which worries residents that reconstruction is tantamount to forced eviction: for elderly residents with limited income, unaffordable new rents mean they have to leave the community. Some resident representatives directly point out that this situation will effectively drive away low-income individuals, calling on the government and UR to take stronger measures to ensure rent protection.
居民多次提出上诉 要求确保相关权益
#2 Community Relations and Relocation Transparency:
Residents generally hope to receive clear guidance on relocation and resettlement. Currently, there is no specific plan from the authorities regarding when to move, where to move to, and how compensation will be handled. In April 2025, the citizen association of Takashimadaira 2 and 3-chome collected signatures from 3,538 residents opposing the plans and submitted them collectively to the Itabashi Ward Office. The association president, Yukimasa Miyasaka, stated, "Urban redevelopment should be resident-centered and must ensure everyone's safety and security." Residents are urging the government to listen carefully and provide detailed explanations when formulating the relocation schedule and compensation policies. They are concerned that if the resettlement is not handled properly, the community's long-established neighborhood networks could be dismantled, and elderly residents may lose their familiar environmental support.
站前商店街的样子, 历史已经有50年之久
#3 Architecture and Environmental Impact
Regarding the planned 110-meter-high tower, many residents have been skeptical from the outset. Itabashi District relaxed height restrictions to allow for the construction of high-rise buildings, but concerns about potential landscape disruption and sunlight rights have led to opposition. Some residents believe that Takashimadaira has always had a unique appearance formed by open skies and rows of buildings, and that "skyscrapers" would destroy the area's character. Additionally, the strong "building wind" effect of the tower is also a concern for nearby residents. Furthermore, the new road plan intends to cut through the existing green belt, with residents worried that the tree-lined path will be divided by traffic, compromising safety and tranquility. In particular, after connecting local roads to Takashima-dōri, the traffic volume is expected to "increase dramatically," with some people straightforwardly stating that this would endanger the safety of community residents.
In response to these concerns, Itabashi District has stated that it is aware of the opposition but emphasized that the aging of the housing complex is serious and "it is time for necessary changes." The district promises to "focus on building a sustainable city for the next 50 to 100 years" while "continuing to listen to district residents' opinions." Local representatives of opposition parties such as the Japanese Communist Party have also intervened in this issue, repeatedly requesting that UR and the government provide sufficient explanations and involve residents in decision-making.
Overall, the redevelopment of Takashimadaira triggers a typical "NIMBY" sentiment at the community level: residents want to improve their living environment but are concerned about their own interests being harmed. Rent and relocation arrangements are the most sensitive issues, determining whether the original residents can truly share the fruits of urban renewal. The government and the UR need to balance commercial interests with public welfare. This tension and negotiation also provide an observation window for external investors: community backlash may affect project progress and regulatory policies, and investment decisions should fully consider these social factors and potential delay risks.
Stone from other hills: Redevelopment of Tokyo's Jūjō
To better evaluate the Takashimadaira project, it is necessary to refer to other similar redevelopment cases in Tokyo. The redevelopment at the west exit of Jujo Station in the Kita Ward, not far from Takashimadaira, is a typical example: from the initial controversy and public opposition to the completion and sell-out of the high-rise buildings, it is quite instructive.
Around 2017, the west exit area of Jujo Station initiated its first type of urban redevelopment project, planning to build a 39-story mixed-use tower approximately 135 meters high next to the station, later known as “The Tower Jujo.” The project involved major corporations such as Tokyu Land Corporation and Nippon Steel Kowa Real Estate, offering a total of 578 new residential units (with 184 units reserved for original rights holders). The lower levels of the tower (1st to 4th floors) house the shopping mall "JESCO" and public facilities, while the upper floors (5th to 39th) are residential apartments. Notably, the tower includes the most expensive apartment layout in the history of Kita Ward—the top-floor luxury residence is priced at 300 million yen, setting a local record.
十条駅前开发
Residents' Opposition and Consultation:
At the beginning of the Jujō project, there was strong resistance from residents and landowners. Many old businesses and residents in the redevelopment area posted banners on their buildings saying "Oppose Redevelopment" to express their protest. In August 2017, more than 100 residents collectively petitioned against the establishment of a redevelopment association. Opponents were concerned that the construction of high-rise buildings would lead to the decline of old shopping streets, soaring rents and land prices, and community division. At the time, there were even legal actions—some landowners sued the Tokyo government, demanding the revocation of the establishment license for the redevelopment project association. Nevertheless, after multiple rounds of coordination and government inducements and compensations, the opposition gradually subsided. Legally, Tokyo rejected the objections (the high court rejected the opposition appeal in its 2024 ruling). Consequently, the Jujō project officially began construction in 2021 and was completed in 2024.
Development results
Today, The Tower Jujo has become a new landmark in the Jujo area. During the early sales phase in early 2023, the property sales were exceptionally hot: within just a few months, 128 newly launched units were released in batches, with an average price of about 120 million yen, and 110 units sold out quickly. The sales data released by the seller is remarkable—8,120 groups registered for reservations, with a highest subscription ratio of 33 times. In other words, dozens of people competed for each unit, making the Jujo Tower almost in short supply. Especially, due to its location just a one-minute walk from the station, and with large shopping malls and public facilities, it has attracted a wide range of home buyers: about 30% of the buyers are local from the Kita ward, with another 10% from the neighboring Itabashi ward, and the rest covering all 23 wards of Tokyo. The primary buyers are dual-income couples in their 40s and 50s, active seniors, and families with children, who value the convenience of Jujo Station's transportation (direct access to Ikebukuro, Shinjuku, Shibuya, and other hubs), as well as the enhanced quality of life brought by the high-rise views and modern amenities.
The positive effects of the redevelopment of Jūjō are reflected in the significant increase in property values and investment returns in the area. According to real estate research data, the average price of second-hand apartments around Jūjō Station has risen by about 30% over the past decade. Old houses in the area have accelerated in value from 2016 to 2021, with an increase of nearly 50% in the last three years, leading the Tokyo suburbs. Land prices have also been rising steadily: in 2014, land prices in the Jūjō area were about 365,000 yen per square meter, and by 2024, they have reached 566,000 yen per square meter, soaring by about 55% over ten years.
The Tower Jujo's new development itself has risen significantly. From its initial sale in 2022 to the final phase in 2024, its average per tsubo price increased from about 4.5 million yen to 6.4 million yen (approximately 2 million yen per square meter), reaching a new high. For instance, the same floor plan (68.96㎡ three-bedroom) launched in 2022 at 100 million yen (per tsubo price 4.85 million) has risen to 132 million yen (per tsubo price 6.32 million) by 2024 and sold out. There are even high-rise units around 66㎡ that are priced close to 100 million yen. Early buyers have already gained considerable paper premiums. If rented out, a newly furnished two-bedroom in Jujo Tower could earn a monthly rent of 250,000 yen, which corresponds to a rental yield of only about 3-4%. However, considering the short-term asset appreciation, these investments are still attractive to buyers.
Long-term gains after labor pains
Ten cases indicate that large-scale redevelopments often bring long-term gains after short-term pains. The initial concerns of residents are not unfounded—as a small number of old shops and original residents indeed chose to leave during the project implementation, and commercial spaces at the base of towers also temporarily faced lower than expected occupancy rates (such as higher vacancy rates within a year of the mall's opening, dubbed by the media as a “ghost town in front of the station”).
招租不及预期
However, from a macro perspective, the overall prosperity and real estate value of the Jūjō area have significantly increased, with an "old town" gradually transforming into a region that combines traditional human warmth with modern urban functionality. In terms of investment returns, the capital gains are quite substantial: early-stage investors and home buyers have benefited from the rapid appreciation. However, investment risks should also be noted: if housing prices are driven too high (as some units in the Jūjō tower section already have per square meter prices comparable to city centers), the future potential for sustained growth remains uncertain.
Investment Potential of Takashimadaira
Based on the above background, the redevelopment project of Takashimadaira presents a complex yet enticing prospect for investors. The investment potential of the area is analyzed from multiple perspectives below:
#1 Land/Property Price Trends
In recent years, the housing prices in Takashimadaira have shown a moderate upward trend. According to data from the Real Estate Institute, the average price of second-hand apartments near Takashimadaira Station is approximately 3.29 million yen per tsubo (about 1.09 million yen per square meter). Over the past 10 years, prices have accumulated an increase of about 25.8%. Although this is not as high as the often 50% level seen in central Tokyo, there has been significant appreciation. Looking ahead to the next 10 years, the model predicts that under a neutral scenario, Takashimadaira's housing prices are expected to rise by about 13.9% again. If redevelopment progresses smoothly, the optimistic scenario could see an increase of as much as 47%. Compared to the surrounding area's average expected increase of only 3.7%, Takashimadaira's potential for value catch-up is promising. In other words, currently, Takashimadaira's housing prices are still relatively low, and once the area is rejuvenated, the land premium potential will gradually be released.
Through Urbalytics, it was observed that the listed land prices around Takashimadaira rose by nearly 50% within three years, reflecting investors' heightened enthusiasm following the finalization of large-scale developments.
土地挂牌价格3年内涨近5成
#2 Rental Yield
The rental yield of Takashimadaira properties is above average in Tokyo. On one hand, the monthly rent for UR rental complexes currently ranges from 58,000 to 119,000 yen for 1DK-3DK units. Estimating based on a second-hand apartment average price of about 30 million yen, the rental yield for regular residences is around 4-5%, slightly higher than the approximately 3% in central Tokyo. On the other hand, for small-sized investment properties, Takashimadaira offers quite attractive surface returns. According to market examples for sale: for instance, a unit in "Third Takashimadaira My Co-op" priced at 12 million yen can yield an annual rent of about 1.27 million yen, with a surface return of 10.6%; similarly, a smaller unit in "Top Takashimadaira" priced at 6.1 million yen can achieve an annual rent of approximately 576,000 yen, with a return close to 9.5%. This reflects that due to the low base price in Takashimadaira, small unit rental investments can easily realize a high gross profit rate of 8-10%. In the future, as new luxury towers enter the market, the overall regional rental levels are expected to improve, but the purchase cost will also rise. High-profit opportunities are expected to mainly exist in existing assets pre-redevelopment.
Data from Urbalytics shows that the returns on entire property projects mostly range from 6 to 7%, which is 1 to 1.5% higher compared to areas like Akabane and Ikebukuro near the city center.
挂牌整栋收益物件的回报率在平均6%左右
#3 Population, Commuting, and Regional Appeal
Takaidaira was once a densely populated residential area, but its permanent population has significantly decreased, and it is experiencing severe aging. One of the goals of redevelopment is to attract young families back to revitalize the community. In terms of transportation, Takaidaira Station is located at the end of the Toei Mita Line, and it takes about 30 minutes by subway to directly reach central business areas such as Otemachi, making commuting time acceptable. Additionally, the area is adjacent to the Metropolitan Expressway and the Saikyo Line of the Yamanote Line (connected via Narimasu/Akabane), offering good external connectivity. However, compared to transportation hubs like Akabane and Ikebukuro, Takaidaira is more suburban, with limited short-term appeal to urban young people. To enhance the area's soft power, Itabashi Ward and UR are collaborating with universities and start-ups to pilot smart city and community building projects (such as the "Dream City Industry-Academia Collaboration" plan). At the same time, the government is offering various child-rearing support policies, such as the Itabashi version of the Neuvola childcare platform and children's hall CAPS activities, to strengthen the area's friendliness to young families. Overall, Takaidaira is located in the northwestern Tokyo district, with a quiet environment and abundant greenery. After future updates, it is expected to combine commuting accessibility with residential comfort, holding potential appeal to office workers and newly married families seeking value for money.
Compare investment returns in surrounding areas.
Compared to other areas within Itabashi District and nearby Akabane, Ikebukuro, etc., Takashimadaira has historically experienced lower growth, but its potential stands out. Looking at the entire Itabashi District, the average apartment price has increased by about 45% over the past decade. The neighboring Kita Ward (including Akabane) has seen an increase of about 45.2%, and Toshima Ward (where Ikebukuro is located) has increased by 53.2%. Takashimadaira's 25.8% increase is less than half the average of the surrounding areas. This indicates that the opportunity cost of investing in Takashimadaira was relatively high in the past.
However, the current property prices in popular surrounding areas are already high, rental yields are compressed, and future growth potential is limited or may even plateau. In contrast, Takashimadaira, with redevelopment bringing population and functional upgrades, is expected to make up for historical shortcomings and surpass surrounding areas. For long-term investors, Takashimadaira is currently in a position similar to what Jūjō was five years ago: a low-value area that will be filled up. For example, in Akabane, several high-rise apartments have been built in recent years, with an average price of about 3.5 million yen per tsubo, and a rental return of 3-4%, with future appreciation slowing down; whereas, the starting price for new projects in Takashimadaira may be just over 3 million yen/tsubo, offering higher cost-performance for renting and selling, and mid-term returns might outperform mature areas like Akabane as the overall area improves. Of course, Takashimadaira cannot be directly compared to inner-city sub-centers like Ikebukuro, but compared to other areas within Itabashi Ward (such as Ōyama, Narimasu) and nearby hubs (like Akabane), its investment return prospects are worth paying close attention to.
The investment data map from Urbalytics shows that in the development area and its surroundings, there are already over 80 residential development projects of various sizes underway, surpassing other areas within the Itabashi District.
开发区域附近的80多个大大小小的建筑项目
Summary: A value depression with both opportunities and risks
Comprehensive analysis indicates that the Takashimadaira redevelopment project presents a situation where opportunities and risks coexist.
With long-term planning led by the government and backed by UR's involvement, the redevelopment prospects for Takashimadaira are relatively clear. Against the backdrop of overall high consolidation in Tokyo's real estate market, Takashimadaira, as a value lowland, is expected to replicate the value surge seen in areas like Jūjō in the future. For patient long-term investors, entering the market in Takashimadaira now is akin to boarding a 20-year appreciation train. Whether acquiring old properties in advance to await relocation compensation, or participating in future new property purchases for appreciation, both could yield considerable returns. Additionally, higher rental yields and policy incentives reduce holding costs, serving as a stabilizer in an investment portfolio.
However, the Takashimadaira project also presents certain uncertainties. Firstly, the project has a long cycle (planned over 20 years), and it may encounter delays due to economic fluctuations, policy adjustments, or even resistance from residents. Investors need ample time and financial resources to cope with potential waiting periods. Secondly, structural issues such as the aging population in the area are difficult to completely transform in the short term. If the pricing for new buildings is set too high, there could be lower-than-expected sales, weakening returns. The current partial commercial vacancy in the Jutten Tower serves as a cautionary example. Additionally, if the Tokyo real estate market as a whole cools down, Takashimadaira, as an outer area, may have weaker resilience compared to core locations, posing certain market risks for investors.
高島平駅の未来像 ©️さとじ
In conclusion, the Takashimadaira redevelopment project represents an "opportunity over challenge" for investors. The government's strong promotion, clear timeline, and the success of surrounding cases all endorse its credibility. This once enormous housing complex is standing at a turning point, harboring immense potential to revitalize. For investors willing to delve into research and grasp the rhythm, Takashimadaira offers a rare long-term value investment opportunity.
References
- Opinions and the Ward's View on the Takashimadaira Community Exchange Core Formation Town Development Plan (Draft)
- Tokyo, Takashimadaira - Tower Mansion in the "Largest Apartment Complex in the East" Completed Half a Century Agohttps://www.asahi.com/articles/AST5X0SNQT5XOXIE006M.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com
- Takashimadaira 2, 3-chome Surrounding Area Redevelopment District 1 (Takashimadaira Apartment Tower Plan)
- The price trend for used condominiums at Takashimadaira Station (Tokyo) is a +27.5% forecast in 10 years! Will the market soar in the future?
