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Why large-scale redevelopment is not necessarily successful: Starting with the "Bright Ruins" of Jujo.
In recent years, a fervent wave of urban redevelopment has surged across Tokyo. Whether driven by disaster prevention needs or the favor of capital, more and more old neighborhoods are being replaced by high-rise buildings and complex facilities. However, urban renewal does not equate to urban revitalization. Without a realistic foundation and the user perspective, even the grandest plans may become desolate "bright ruins."
Today, we are going to talk about such a typical case—the redevelopment project in front of Jujo Station, a massive redevelopment initiative combining residential, commercial, cultural, and administrative facilities, and how it lost its vitality in less than a year.
Redevelopment of Jūjō: From Bustling to Desolate
Jūjō is a traditional residential area with strong Shōwa-era charm. The famous "Jūjō Ginza Shopping Street" is renowned for its affordable prices and friendly atmosphere, earning it the title of one of the "Three Great Ginzas of Tokyo." Therefore, when the redevelopment project initiated under the name of "disaster prevention" was officially launched, it was originally anticipated as a symbol of "upgraded living." However, it soon exposed disappointing results.
In 2024, "The Tower Jujo" was officially completed. This 39-story high-rise residential project, priced at over 100 million yen, is dubbed the "Billionaire Mansion of Kita Ward." In addition to the residential area, it also includes the commercial zone "J & Mall," featuring high-end supermarket "Queen's Isetan," chain restaurants, convenience stores, beauty salons, and a public cultural facility "JectL," equipped with a 3D printing room, book reading room, and multi-purpose cultural space. It sounds impeccable, but the reality is lamentable.
ザ・タワー十条建设完成图
In May 2025, after an on-site visit, we discovered that nearly half of the shops in this newly constructed complex located in a central area are still vacant. Particularly on the second-floor commercial area, only five shops have moved in, and some areas are not even fully renovated. What is more puzzling is the severe lack of a mall navigation system; most shop locations cannot be discerned from the entrance, and even an official webpage has not been set up, causing great inconvenience for visitors.
平面图只有左上角的Queen Isetan入驻
The root of the problem: redesign detached from life
#1 The rental pricing is much higher than the surrounding area, deviating from the actual market.
Although J-Town Mall is ideally located in front of Jujō Station with a brand-new building, its rent levels are significantly higher than those in the surrounding traditional commercial areas. For example, the rent for medical use on the first floor reaches as high as 25,000 to 30,000 yen per tsubo, while properties just a few hundred meters away in the Jujō Ginza shopping street have rents of only about 14,000 yen.
This "high-end positioning," in the absence of brand appeal and a stable customer flow, deters local merchants. Many of the small shop owners who used to operate on Shijo Nishiguchi Shopping Street are mostly unable to bear such high fixed costs.
#2 Unreasonable design of movement paths, lacking basic guidance facilities
The design also has its flaws.
- The entrance is narrow, and the mall's navigation system is extremely unclear.
- There is a lack of floor guidance inside the building, and ground navigation cannot accurately locate businesses.
- The shopping mall's official website is not yet online, making it impossible to access information in advance.
The above problem has led to the very common situation where visitors "can't find the store," reducing the accessibility and attractiveness of the business district.
Especially with the core tenant "Queen's Isetan" being located on the second floor, it severely violates the basic common sense that "supermarkets should be on the first floor to serve as an anchor for traffic." Many visitors don't even know where the supermarket is, making it naturally difficult to generate return visits.
2F 伊势丹
#3 Lack of "magnetic" brand and daily demand in merchant type combination
Successful commercial areas typically establish coffee shops, light food, and premium convenience retail establishments on the first floor as "low threshold, high frequency" operations to attract foot traffic.
However, the actual composition of Jate Mall includes:
- Real estate agencies, pawn shops, clinics, and dry cleaners are types of businesses with a strong purpose but low foot traffic.
- The main forces are chain convenience stores and fast food, lacking distinguishing characteristics.
- Lack of spaces to stay, such as cafes, dessert shops, and bookstores.
This makes the overall atmosphere more "functional" rather than "lifestyle-oriented," which neither attracts external foot traffic nor has enough vitality to stimulate consumption in the residential areas above.
#4 The architectural design compromises comfort and usability.
The redeveloped building was supposed to be "upgraded" in terms of functionality and comfort, but the physical space of Jett Mall has many issues.
- Multiple external spaces are open, and during rainy days, rainwater might directly enter.
- In some areas, the air conditioning does not reach, making it stuffy in summer and cold in winter.
- Lack of all-weather adaptability that enclosed commercial streets possess
Compared to traditional "arcade shopping streets," this project is actually worse in terms of walkability and environmental control, reducing its usage rate.
十条银座“拱门型”商业街
Similar cases are not isolated: Azabudai Hills and Tokyu Plaza have also experienced a cold reception.
The redevelopment predicament of Jujo is not an isolated case. In recent years, several large-scale redevelopment projects in Tokyo have faced difficulties during the initial stages of leasing or operation.
#1. Tokyu Plaza Ginza
Tokyu Plaza Ginza was once a landmark commercial facility in Tokyo's Ginza area, attracting a large number of tourists and consumers with its unique architectural design and prime location. However, in recent years, the facility faced numerous challenges such as high rental costs, a limited variety of store offerings, poor traffic flow design, and lagging digital transformation, resulting in slow customer traffic acquisition. These operational inefficiencies ultimately led to its acquisition by a Hong Kong private real estate company in February 2025, after which it will undergo a comprehensive renovation. The new owner plans to carry out large-scale renovations in 2026, transforming it into a "new concept retail center" to better meet market demands.
#2 Omiya Gate Street
Ōmiya Gate Street is a redevelopment project located at the east exit of Ōmiya Station in Saitama Prefecture, formerly the site of the Central Department Store. The project has a total investment of approximately 65.8 billion yen, of which 49.1 billion yen is public funding. The project aims to inject new vitality into the area and enhance the overall value of the region by introducing a variety of commercial facilities. Despite the significant investment, the project has failed to meet its expected goals, with major issues including:
- Monotonous tenant structure: The commercial area is primarily occupied by clinics and other medical institutions, lacking retail and dining options that attract foot traffic, resulting in an atmosphere similar to a "mixed-use building."
- Lack of appeal in design: During the project design process, the originally planned curves and glass elements were simplified, resulting in a mediocre building appearance lacking in character, which failed to attract customers.
- Unclear operational strategy: Lack of a clear market positioning and operational strategy has failed to effectively attract the target customer group, resulting in insufficient foot traffic.
As of 2023, the occupancy rate in the commercial district is only 66%, far below expectations, and the project has failed to achieve its goal of revitalization, becoming a typical example of inefficient use of public funds.
#3 Azabudai Hills
Azabudai Hill is a super-large redevelopment project in Tokyo's Minato Ward, led by Mori Building, with a total project investment exceeding 640 billion yen. It aims to create an integrated urban space combining office, residential, commercial, and cultural facilities. Despite the project's large scale, the high rental costs, vague commercial positioning without clearly defined target customers, intense competition in the area, and lack of differentiation have led to slow occupancy by businesses, with less than 50% of commercial offices occupied even two years after opening.
Lessons for Investors
For real estate investors or companies hoping to engage in urban renewal projects, the case of Shitiao provides several profound lessons:
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1. Large-scale development ≠ No risk
Don't be deceived by the "high-end" appearance of redevelopment projects. Numerous high-rise buildings and comprehensive facilities do not equate to successful operations. Focus on the project's actual occupancy rate, the operator's capabilities, community acceptance, and other "backend data."
ザ・タワー十条平均単価: 603万円/坪, 比预售时候高了约2成
From Urbalytics, it can be seen that the average price per tsubo for The Tower Jyujyo is around 6 million yen, which is less than a 20% increase compared to the early 2022 average price (450~550). This is really not much compared to the nearly double increase in the Tsukishima area. The rental demand has been lukewarm after development, causing the overall development pricing to be "unfavorable."
2. Pay attention to the risk of community breakdown.
Redevelopment often means the disappearance of old communities. If the development cannot sustain the original lifestyle and cultural structure, business naturally struggles to continue. Truly successful redevelopment allows the "new" to embrace the "old."
Since the launch of the redevelopment project for the west exit area of Jujō Station, it has faced strong opposition from local residents. The Jujō area is known for its unique downtown atmosphere and dense wooden houses, and residents have a deep affection for this traditional way of life. The high-rise buildings and modern commercial facilities proposed in the redevelopment plan are seen by many residents as a threat to the existing community culture. They worry that such large-scale urban renewal will disrupt the original neighborhood relationships and lifestyle, causing Jujō to lose its unique charm. Residents have expressed their opposition to the redevelopment project in various ways, including organizing rallies, submitting petitions, and filing administrative lawsuits. Although the courts have repeatedly dismissed residents' appeals in legal terms, these opposition activities have successfully attracted public and media attention, prompting the relevant authorities to be more cautious in the project's advancement. For example, the redevelopment project originally scheduled to start in 2018 was postponed to 2021 due to residents' opposition.
3 Operating capabilities for the developer is just as critical as constructing capabilties
Completing the construction is just the beginning. Introducing the brand, maintaining vitality, and continuously attracting foot traffic are the true tests of a project's viability. Does the developer have long-term operational experience? Are they collaborating with local resources? These are worth investigating in-depth by investors.
As a well-known comprehensive developer in Japan, the Tokyu Group has extensive experience in urban development. However, it also faces operational challenges in several projects, including those in Ginza and Shibuya, which warrants investor attention. Even experienced developers need to continuously adjust their operational strategies to ensure the long-term success of their projects when facing rapidly changing market demands and consumer behavior.
Summary: "Building it" does not mean "someone will use it"
Urban redevelopment is an irreversible trend, especially in Tokyo, where the needs for disaster prevention, safety, and renewal are prominent. However, "building it" does not mean "someone will use it." The current situation in Jūjō reminds us that a city does not exist for the sake of its buildings, but to serve its people.
Whether you are an investor, developer, or policymaker, next time before making a decision on a redevelopment project, please think one step further:
Who would truly be willing to come to this space and willing to stay?
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